Why Is There A Matcha Shortage?
The reality
2025 marked a turning point for matcha on a global scale. What was once a niche drink quickly became a staple, appearing everywhere from specialty coffee shops and home-based cafés to new local matcha brands. Production expanded beyond Japan, with matcha emerging from countries such as China, Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam. As demand surged, prices climbed sharply, and established Japanese brands like Marukyu Koyamaen and Ippodo saw their shelves emptied almost as quickly as they were restocked.
At the same time, matcha connoisseurs and experienced brands began educating the public on the differences in grades, standards, and sourcing. This shift created a more informed consumer base. People started paying closer attention to taste, colour, and texture, questioning bitterness, dull hues, or overly diluted flavours. In response, cafés were pressured to raise their standards, turning to higher-quality matcha to meet growing expectations.
While the shortage felt sudden, it was not the result of a single moment. It was the outcome of multiple global pressures converging at once. Japan, which currently supplies approximately 70% of the world’s high-quality matcha (matcha-times.jp), simply could not scale production fast enough without compromising quality. Matcha requires time, space, and skilled labour, resources that cannot be expanded overnight, leaving tea farms struggling to keep pace with a demand that had outgrown the realities of traditional production.
Slow by design
Matcha is made from shade-grown tencha, where tea plants are covered for approximately three to four weeks before harvest to increase chlorophyll and amino acid content. After harvesting, the leaves are steamed, dried, and stone-ground into a fine powder. In traditional production, many farms rely on hand-picking to ensure only the youngest, most suitable leaves are selected.
To meet rising global demand, some producers have turned to machine-picking and mechanised grinding to speed up production. While more efficient, this approach often affects quality. Machine-picked matcha can appear duller in colour, as mature leaves and natural debris are more likely to be included. It removes the careful selectivity that hand-picking allows, resulting in a product that is less vibrant in both taste and appearance. For countries that export large volumes of lower-grade matcha, such as China, mechanisation is often the only viable way to keep up with demand.
Despite these efficiencies, many farms in Japan continue to prioritise hand-picking and slower processing methods. Rather than increasing output at the expense of quality, they choose to focus on craftsmanship and consistency. This is one of the reasons high-quality Japanese matcha commands a premium, reflecting not just the final product, but the time, labour, and precision involved at every stage of production.
Unlike coffee, where a mature tree can produce cherries annually for 15 to 25 years, matcha production requires the same intensive process to be repeated with every harvest. Combined with a limited annual harvest window, specific soil and climate requirements, restricted farming land, and ongoing labour shortages, scaling matcha production is inherently difficult. These limitations make it nearly impossible to rapidly increase supply without compromising the qualities that define good matcha in the first place.
Rising global demands
Driven largely by social media, matcha culture surged globally, aligning closely with the wellness-focused trends of 2025. Cafés began positioning higher-quality matcha as a daily staple rather than a specialty item, while a wave of new matcha brands entered the market simultaneously. This rapid expansion placed significant strain on Japanese tea farms, many of which were unable to increase production at the same pace. Traditional producers, in particular, continued to prioritise quality over volume, choosing not to compromise long-established cultivation and processing methods.
In Japan, established brands such as Marukyu Koyamaen and Ippodo responded by introducing purchase limits for foreign buyers. These measures were intended to address a growing pattern of excessive purchasing, where matcha was bought in quantities far beyond what could be consumed within its shelf life. Improper storage often led to oxidation and spoilage, resulting in unnecessary waste. At the same time, scalpers began clearing shelves to resell matcha at inflated prices on e-commerce platforms, further restricting access for regular consumers and contributing to the perception of scarcity.
Lack of manpower
Many matcha farms in Japan are small, family-run operations with limited manpower and resources, making it difficult to respond to sudden urges in global demand. Matcha farming requires highly specialized knowledge, extending far beyond the shading process. Factors such as local climate, soil composition, fertilisation methods, and tea cultivars all influence the final taste and character of the matcha. This is why the same style of matcha can taste markedly different when grown in regions like Uji versus Yame.
Compounding this challenge is Japan’s aging farming population. With fewer successors taking over family farms and even fewer young farmers entering the industry, the number of skilled matcha producers continues to decline. This labour shortage has left matcha production largely unable to scale, with farms constrained not by demand, but by the time, expertise, and human resources required to produce high-quality matcha.
Weather & Climate
2025 saw unpredictable weather affecting tea harvests, with record temperatures damaging matcha farms and harvest. In 2025, Kyoto was hit by severe heatwaves, resulting in lesser harvest in April to May. (straitstimes.com) This played a large role in the matcha shortage as the Kyoto region accounts for 25% of Japan’s tencha production.
Shade-grown plants like tencha are more sensitive to environmental changes with an ideal growing range between 20 to 30 degrees celsius. With the increase in heat, not only does it damage tencha bushes, it also dries up the moist soil needed for optimal match growth.
Is the matcha shortage over?
As shown by google trends, the interest in matcha saw an exponential increase from December 2024, and peaked in August 2025 before declining from then till 2025. The matcha trend is no longer at its peak anymore, with lesser consumer demand. With lower demand, the matcha shortage might finally ease up, however true first harvest matcha will always be finite, and despite there being a high chance of matcha supply stabilizing, first harvest matcha will still remain limited.
What does this mean for us?
As reflected in Google Trends data, global interest in matcha rose sharply from December 2024, reaching its peak around August 2025 before gradually declining toward the end of the year. While matcha may no longer be at the height of its trend cycle, consumer demand has begun to level off. This easing in demand suggests that the broader matcha shortage may gradually stabilise.
However, true first-harvest matcha will always remain finite. Even as overall supply conditions improve, the availability of high-quality, first-harvest matcha is naturally limited by season, land, and labour. As a result, while matcha supply may become more stable over time, the most sought-after matcha will continue to be scarce by nature, not by trend.